We never see market bubbles coming, only over our shoulder

 There is much ado in the financial press about the "AI bubble". Pundits wax on and on about the coming and going, the pop prick of this thing "we all know" is happening. 

The majority fall into the camp that reflects their imbedded conflict of interest, the idea that "a bubble is coming but it is not here yet". This view they will hold until after a bubble has past, for it 1) keeps them in the majority and avoids (shudder) standing out in full sunlight with an actual well-reasoned adult opinion 2) it keeps their clients in the market, in the pundits' strategy/fund/etf/etc. 

As I see it, bubbles are rarely called in advance. It always looks like things could get crazier, prices more elevated. There is always some past mania where prices were pushed to an even greater extreme, on such as basis, we are still at a reasonable valuation. 

It's always easier to tell when things are really cheap than when they are really expensive. At least it always was for me, when I did this stuff for a living. 

Your broker/advisor/manager will not get you out of this. Neither will the guy on the radio and his coop of financial bucket masters. This is good, because they don't know where the top is. They don't know where the bottom is. They only know this mantra that they repeat at the break of each new year... this thing the market is doing today we believe will continue for a while, later on we think prices will change. Yellow. Worthless. Where they will add value is keeping you out of the ditch, keeping you in the market when your impulse is to run, keeping you out of expensive strategies/funds/partnerships/pools/private this/private that.  

When the dust settles and the things in that bubbble have fallen a bunch, and then a bunch again, then we'll look back at the mess and read the wisdom of pundits who will tell us of the fools like us who never learned from the past.  

I am a fan of the New York Jets

As I left mass this morning, I caught that second half of the Jets-Broncos game. It was one of those London games of the 2025 season, with a kickoff just as mass was starting. 

I have been following the Jets since Joe Namath took them to the Super Bowl so many years ago. They have never been my main team. That loyalty has belonged mainly to the Buccaneers, Rams and Vikings, when I lived in the same city as those teams. But for over 50 years, the Jets have been my second team, the team I always wanted to do well, and to someday return to Superbowl glory. 

If you dig around my house, you'll find some Rams stuff and a few Vikings things. but much more Jets. Jets hat, sweatshirt and coffee mug are the things seen most often. In 2023 I went to the NFL Hall of Fame in Canton. First stop, Kurt Warner's bust. Second stop, Joe Namath's bust. Rubbed Joe's nose for good luck like thousands of others. Didn't rub Kurt's nose. 

When my son was 12 his approach to the baseball plate mimicked the stance of Mark McGwire. Mark and my son lived for a while in the same city and were baseball players at the same time, though at different levels. 

When I was 12 and playing quarterback in my front yard with my friends, my stance as I dropped back to pass, mimicked that of Joe Namath. It was intentional, I really tried to hold the ball the way I thought he did, and release it as he did. In reality I was a poor imitation but in my mind I was pretty close. 

With today's result, Jets lost and are now 0-6, the season is likely over. I get to be one of the first fans to start thinking hard about the 2026 draft and what it means for my team. Perhas there is another Namath in next year's class. One who is a true student of the game, who has watched the old film footage from the 60s and marveled at the moves of Broadway Joe. Maybe. 

As I left Mass I did not have the Jets on my mind. But when I turned on the game on the radio, I no longer had the miracle of the Mass on my mind. What does that say about me. Perhaps nothing, just a normal human whose mind moves from one thing to another. Or, am I just a passing fan of both? I hope not. Christ has many fans, but very few fully devoted followers.