The April Fools of the US equity market in the Year of our Lord, 2025

 I don't give investment advice to friends. I don't care about the outcome enough to stay engaged, the personal payoff structure is asymmetrical. Family is different. Them, I try to keep out of the ditch, if they ask. 

The market fell off sharply as our President has become enamored with a tax called a tariff. Markets will tolerate a modest hike in taxes, but not on the scale he is proposing. 

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, badly. Never sell out of US stocks. Never. Never. Never. 

Buy when the market is rising, buy when it is falling, buy when it is flat. Never, never sell. Buy when a President is healthy, buy when one is assassinated. Buy when oil is plentiful, buy when there is a shortage. Buy when there is no cure for a terrible virus. Buy when a vaccine is developed. Buy when you love the President, buy when you don't. Buy when you're sober, buy when you're not. Buy when there is war, when there is rumor of war, when there is peace. Buy when your dog dies, when your cat dies (especially), when your Uncle Wayne dies.

Granted there are times when one should sell everything, go to cash, wait for clarity. Ask CNBC or Fox Business they see it all the time. Having been born in 1956 I have yet to see such a day. 

What so many people fail to realize is our emotions act in an opposite fashion of real things. 

When the market falls we percieve (feel) that risks are going up, we feel this is bad. In reality the risks are going down. The opposite is true when stocks are rising. 

This was true in 1929 and will still be true in 2029. True in 1974, will be true in 2074. 

In case I am all wrong. Keep a few cartons of Marlboros and some bottles of Jack Daniels in your basement. I think I have about four of each. When the social order completely breaks down, when the gas pumps are dry and the shelves are bare at Food Lion, these two things will always have value and can be exchanged for passage across the border into Canada or Mexico. 

Magoo Christmas

When I was small Christmas meant many things, one of them was the TV showing of the Mr. Magoo version of The Christmas Carol. It's still my favorite Christmas cartoon and when I think of that story I always hear the voice of Jim Backus as Scrooge. Christmas is almost here. I have this on DVD somewhere. This was the very first Christmas cartoon.

 See this blog for a lot of great info on a wonderful show 

https://mrmagooschristmascarol.blogspot.com/

What I wanted and What I got. Ribs and blizzards.

I wanted snow. I wanted a white Christmas. Looks like I'm going to get them both. But what if I had known that to get snow meant I would not see family today. That December 23rd would be one more day of China Flu isolation. Flights cancelled. Loved ones who were 500 miles away are still 500 miles away when they should now be in my living room. 

They'll get here eventually, but not today. Right now I should be watching Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech in the New Orleans Bowl with my son, or walking out on a frozen lake with my granddaughters. 

Yesterday it was 45 F and I was smoking ribs in my backyard. Today it is around 20, the wind is howling, and the snow is traveling horizontally. 

Had I known the tradeoff, and been given a  choice, I would have passed. 

But, a word on the ribs. When smoking in winter managing the heat in the smoker can be a challenge. We have a tendency to get the box too hot or too cold, especially when a good stiff wind accompanies the cold temps. yesterday I had temps as low as 150 and as high as 325, but close to that magical 200 most of the time.  

The seasoning. Allegro Marinade. The greatest marinade in the world. Generally I don't use them. I like to smoke meat with only salt and pepper and put my full skills on display, not mask them with sauces and rubs. "Let the meat speak for itself" I like to say. But every once in a while you need to do something different, so this time the ribs were marinated for 24 hrs in Allegro. 

Had the weather cooperated, my son and I would be watching that game while snacking on some leftover ribs. Instead, I've got em all to myself. Here's to silver linings behind the clouds of this blizzard!

Advent in time of Pandemic

 What does Advent mean to us during a time of pandemic? Or perhaps a better question is, What is different about our celebration this year? Advent hasn't changed, but we have, at least a little. One year ago we were in the midst of the angst and cynicism of a presidential impeachment. That had an impact on our celebration, though it should not have. One year from now there will be some new thing to distract and detach us from the glorious tradition. 

Perhaps we cannot help but look at this time differently or in some new way. Despite the added free time on our hands I believe the temptation will be to think of the season less. There was something about the busyness of Christmas seasons past that made us want  to make sure that we did not leave out the Christ story and message. I sense that focus is missing this year. 

This Advent should be like all others. A time to contemplate the anniversary of the coming of Christ. A season full of reminders. The refreshing of the Church calendar. Immaculate Conception. St. Nicholas Day. The journey to Bethlehem. The colors and candles of the four Sundays. Midnight Mass. All pointing to the most important thing that ever happened in human history, God incarnate. His coming to earth in human form. 

Christmas 2020. Gone are the parades, the hauling of kids to see Santa, the corporate parties, the Christmas pageants and concerts. No distractions, no excuses. Come Christmas! 

Tulips in October

 It is late October and the air is crisp as the temperature jumps around the low 30s and high 20s. Last week we had around 6 inches of snow, which is unusual for this part of the state so soon. Two weeks ago I planted around 200 spring tulips and wondered whether I was early, as we were still on the warm side of autumn. 

These bulbs are seeds of a Spring to come. They will lie dormant from October through March. Dormant is not a good word, perhaps disguised is better. In the ground of October, they anticipate the cold of December and the thawing of February and March. While the grass is brown and snow covers the soil, down in the earth the cold temps launch a change inside the bulb. Never mind the botanical details. But a change that will cause a stem and flower to push out of the earth in April and May. For now they get no attention from me. No care, no water, no fertilizer. Only neglect and hardship. From this comes growth. Hmmm, a metaphor for something.

In planting tulips I am looking ahead...around the corner, behind the curtain, over the hill, down the street of time, to another spring. Past the laughs of Thanksgiving. Beyond the Gloria of Christmas and the Miracle of the Annunciation, they will be here to celebrate the Hosanna of Easter. 

Tulips are for time travelers. If you envy them in the spring because there are none in your yard, go back in time six months. Go to Home Depot. Buy bulbs. Plant them. 

If you are annoyed by the work involved in the fall, digging 200 holes, it must be because your body is getting old and is stuck in the present day. Your mind has moved on and is seeing beauty in things that will happen in the year to come. Things you are almost certain of. 

Come Winter!! 

The Nativity of John the Baptist

When I became Catholic, there were many things I grew to love that I had not thought much about when pondering finer points of theology. One is the church calendar. There is always something going on and it is always pointing to Jesus.

This week we celebrated the birth of John the Baptist. Just six more months until Christmas! Three months ago, when snow was still on the ground, came the annunciation - 9 months until Christmas. The angel told Mary at that time that her cousin Elizabeth was in her sixth month. Mary traveled to see Elizabeth, who became in a way the first evangelist, sorta. It was Elizabeth who proclaimed that the child Jesus, living three months in the womb of Mary, was "my Lord".

John the Baptist. The Precursor. He must increase and I must decrease. Leaping in the womb as Mary approaches Elizabeth. Preparing the way of the Lord. In the wilderness with a few followers. The baptizer of Jesus. Martyr at the hand of Herod Antipas.

Saint John the Baptist, pray for us. 

Merry Christmas to me

I tell this story not to show what a great guy I am, but to remind me that at least this one time, I did the right thing. Barely.

today I went to lunch at a Chinese place by my office. As I walked I passed a young woman with a baby, sitting near the entrance. That was not unusual. This time of year there are plenty of babies and moms on the Minneapolis skyway. Christmas shopping, pictures with Santa, etc.

What caught my attention was the sadness on her face. Like something out of a painting. One of those expressions that we have when we are out of options. Deep sadness mixed with gloom, agony, despair. 

I went inside and ate. I ate quickly as I do when something is bugging me. I kept thinking about her. wondering why she was so sad. Feeling guilty that I didn't stop and ask her. But of course my guilt was not so great that I would go look for her. Of course not, I had lunch to eat. If I left I'd lose my place in line! No, I just waded through with the sort of bad feeling that you let linger. Just long enough until there is nothing you can do about it.

I finished my meal. I walked back to where she was sitting, and of course she was gone. I looked around. I strolled through the skyway and headed toward the direction of Macy's and Target, thinking that if I were her I might be going that way.

Whatever she had been doing and whatever I was doing fell into synch. There she was again, this time pushing the baby in a stroller and on her phone.

Unlike when I first saw her there were now a lot of people around. So I wasn't going to actually talk to her, that would have looked weird.

She was talking to a friend asking for money to buy her baby a coat and hat. Something about being robbed last week. No help came from that friend I could tell. As I passed her she was quickly dialing another friend, and I stayed close enough to hear her plead,  "do you have 30 or 40 dollars that I can borrow until payday?" She retold the story again of her situation.

I felt the wad of bills in my pocket, and I knew it was about what she needed.

I turned around and looked at her. She could have been twenty or so, but had the care-worn face of someone much older. I handed her the bills and said, "this is for you. Merry Christmas". she had a stunned look on her face. And in the middle of Macy's, a week before Thanksgiving, I got this wonderful Christmas-style bear hug. She said " thank you so much". I mumbled a reply. 

I walked off to hear her, still on the phone with her friend, "you wont believe what just happened..."

I will buy a lot of things this Christmas and spend a lot of money on people I love. Some on sale, some not. But the best bargain of the Christmas season will be that forty dollar hug.

There are so many needs around us. So easy to just keep walking.

Brining the turkey

I always brine a turkey when I am smoking it. This year we brined and then roasted in the oven. I am now convinced that brining is one of the keys to a great turkey.

What was interesting was that we cooked this turkey a day before Christmas in order to free up the oven for other things, and it was just to cold to enjoy smoking it outside.

This was a 20 lb turkey that was brined for 48 hrs. There are several good recipes online, ours was simple with 2 gallons of water, a couple of cups each of salt and brown sugar, and some sloshes of worcestershire sauce, soy sauce, and a couple of oranges.

On Christmas day, we looked online for advice on how to properly reheat day old turkey and keep the flavor. Found some good advice from the New York Times (finally) and followed it. They suggested focusing on the big meaty chunks of the turkey and not try to reheat the whole thing. Good thinking. Got four big chunks of the turkey, two breast halves and the two leg/thigh pieces. Turkey was nice and moist and while not exactly the same as usual, it was very close.

The brining kept the turkey moist and with a full rich turkey taste. It is several days later and the turkey is still almost as good as on day one.

Another Christmas Past

Another Christmas is past. Another one for the ghost of Christmas past to visit if I ever find myself reliving the story of Scrooge.

This was a good Christmas. Times shared with family and a time to share both Christmas eve and Christmas day with friends of my children.

2013 was a year full of trials, not so much for me but for those I love very much. It was a year to pray hard for those close to us.

There are several moments about this year that I will never forget. One in particular was a prayer I heard over the phone. A prayer that hard times, terrible times, would be turned to glorious times as a period of great spiritual growth.

It was a year when I learned why God created and blessed the family. This year brought some of the hardiest laughs and most heart wrenching tears our family has ever heard. Through it all I tried to give thanks, which is so much easier when you are a bystander and not the sufferer. The one who suffered the most in our family is my hero, who is showing me day by day what true surrender to the will of God involves.

It was also a year to find Jesus in places I did not expect and in faces I did not know.

Christmas is over, sort of

Today was the day I took down the last of the Christmas decorations. The ones on the outside of the house. This year we decorated the outside with wreaths that were lighted at night. Around Christmas day I realized to my horror that I had all the bows in the wrong place. All around the neighborhood wreaths had bows at the top, mine had them at the bottom. How did I miss this? Note to self for next year....

In the back of our basement hang the wreaths. They will gather dust until some time around October, when I'll start fooling around with them, checking lights, replacing bows. In the summer, when Christmas seems so far off, they hang there in silence ready for service on a moments notice. It's nice to see them there, even if I am not allowed to display them publicly.

In a nearby closet are all the Christmas decorations. Packed away finally. We took the inside ones down a little sooner than normal this year. I'm not sure why, something to do with the boredom of a New Years Day. Once Christmas Day is past my wife starts secretly packing things away, like a Mission Impossible to see how much she can remove without my noticing. One day it's "Hey, where's the big Santa?". The next morning it's "My dearest, what happened to the NOEL candleholders?". A few moments later, "Where are the NUTCRACKERS and who kidnapped baby Jesus !!!!" I know the answer, they are all part of the long parade of decorations back to the Christmas closet.

My one victory this year was leaving the outside lights on much longer than in the past. Usually I turn them off on January 6, which is Epiphany for the western world and Christmas Day for the orthodox Christians. Seems about the right time. But the last few years I noticed that a few of my neighbors kept their lights on long into the winter. This year I joined them and kept mine on until the end of January. We had no snow this year, and the lights added a bit of merriment to an otherwise dull and dark and grey and brown landscape. I set them to turn on/off at dusk/dawn which meant they were on when I came home from work, and still going when I left in the morning.

My wife's stepfather, Onis, was born on Christmas eve. He will be buried in two days. After 101 years and 102 Christmases. Down here we all have boxes of little ornaments and trinkets that we haul out once a year. He is at that place beyond the horizon, where it is always Christmas and always Easter. For him, the real thing is just now beginning.

Christmas Eve 2011 - Chaska Minnesota

We celebrated the beginning of Christmas Day at the midnight mass at Guardian Angels Church in Chaska. This is a family tradition of the past ten years or so. Wherever we are we have managed to find beautiful midnight masses in St. Louis, Columbia SC, Little Rock and the Twin Cities.

This one I will remember for the soloist with the beautiful voice singing Gesu Bambino.

"Again the heart with rapture glows to greet the holy night

That gave the world its Christmas Rose, its King of Love and Light.

Let ev'ry voice acclaim His name, the grateful chorus swell

From paradise to earth He came, that we with Him might dwell."

My Perfect Smoked Turkey - Christmas 2011

Poultry is about the easiest type of meat to smoke. Very hard to get it wrong and a few cheap chickens are perfect to practice on when first starting out. Still, smoking the Christmas turkey is a serious matter since the whole meal depends on you pullng this off right. This year I smoked turkeys at Thankgiving and Christmas. While both turned out well, the Christmas turkey got a lot more raves and I'll admit it was a piece of art. I did a few things differently this week, not intentionally so, just the way it worked out. So until I find a better method, this is my way of smoking turkey.

One 15 1/2 lb turkey ( all the recipes say you shouldnt smoke anything bigger than 14 lbs. They are wrong)

Soaked the turkey in brine for 24 hours. Brine is 2 gallons of water, 2 cups salt (cheap generic table salt), 2 cups brown sugar, 2 tablespoons of black pepper, one or two cups of apple juice, two oranges quartered. Mix all this up in a clean bucket or trash can.

Since this time of year it is below freezing in my garage, I simply leave this in the garage. In warmer places I'd keep it in the fridge.

Smoked it with hickory wood. Stuffed the cavity with an apple and an orange, sliced in half. Used about two thirds wood, one third Kingsford charcoal. At thanksgiving I think I used a little more charcoal and cherry wood. Put it on at 7am and kept the temp between 250 and 350 most of the time, though it did dip down to around 200 while I fell asleep on the couch. At about 1:30 it reached the magical 165 degrees internally, so about 6 1/2 hours to smoke. So tender and smokey and moist, just about perfect.

Our White Christmas 2011

Ah Christmas, the best time of the year. Except this year, the white Christmas we take for granted in Minnesota is not to be found. Here is a picture of the patio and backyard, taken today. A few flurries this morning dusted the patio but that's about it. But we'll keep the lights burning in January and perhaps have snow in time for the Orthodox Christmas.

Christmas - Stage 1

The outdoor lights are up. Most of them at least. A weekend project the day before Halloween. Seems weird if you don't live this far north. I'll finish the project this coming weekend. After that it could be too cold to do it right and give it the time the work deserves. The basement is scattered with bins of Christmas decorations as we gather the few that need to go outside. For some reason they werent all packed together last year. I'm falling down on my re-packing duties. Here in Minnesota the leaves are brown and mostly on the ground.

You can smell Christmas in the cold morning air.

In the twelve days of Christmas

We are now in the twelve days of Christmas. That traditional time between the birth of Christ and the arrival of the wise men. To most of us Christmas is over, but in olden days the celebration and days of worship were just starting. Imagine hearing someone exclaim, "Happy Christmas!" on January second. Even if you returned the greeting, you would think they were a bit off, or eccentric at least. Christian tradition says otherwise. It says these are the days to ponder those first proclamations about the birth, the visit of the Magi, the angelic host, his worship by the shepherds, and the first visit to the temple before the aging Rabbi Simeon. Proclamations that ring down through the centuries.

Our Christmas this year was spent in South Carolina. Not a large group, eleven of us. We spent it enjoying our company, eating wonderful food from ancient family recipes, arguing over minor points of board games,watching a bowl game or two, and in my case...sleeping through movies. Christmas eve was spent at a Baptist service and a Catholic mass, reflecting a coming change in the composition of our extending family. We witnessed firsthand the wonderful unity of all Christianity and the senseless divisions that must grieve the one whose birth we are celebrating. Below is a picture of St. Joseph's in Columbia, where we worshiped.

There were other changes that reflected the passing of time and generations. Rob and Laura drove from St. Louis, retracing a trail his parents first took when they were engaged. A simple act but a beautiful sign of his commitment to Laura by helping cement her place in our family. Caroline's news of college acceptances and plans added another big element of change. Because our children are now adults, every event carried the possbility that "this might be the last time". Such as when all the women gathered around the piano and sang as my mother played Christmas carols and old hymns. They must have sang for a solid hour. It was the high point of our days there.

The bookends to our trip were evenings spent in Charlotte with Kevin. A snowfall on the last day of our visit added an extra special Christmas feel to his home. He makes certain it is always is a very welcoming place, no matter what hour of the day or night his family arrives.    

This will be a Christmas remembered. Happy Christmas.

Diamond Dust

This morning was clear and sunny, for the first time in several days. The temp was around zero and as I stopped at a traffic light I saw thousands of tiny ice crystals, much smaller than snowflakes, sparkling in the air. At first I thought it was a breeze hitting a snowbank and throwing flakes across the roadway. But the more I looked the more there was nothing to account for this.... a clear morning, frigid temps, something strange and beautiful in the air.


I researched this oddity online and found that "when condensation nuclei are present, diamond dust may form at temperatures just below minus 20^oC (0 ^oF). At such temperatures, the water vapour in the air spontaneously forms ice crystals which slowly settle earthward. When these falling crystals are caught in the light, they sparkle like gemstones, a weather condition known appropriately enough as diamond dust."

The phenomena was followed by hearing passages from the Messiah as I walked into church. A great way to start this last Sunday before the nativity of the Lord.

Twin Cities - The Big Snow

Last night we were supposed to host a Christmas party for about 60 people. Nature intervened with a snowstorm big enough to collapse the roof of the Metrodome. The party was cancelled but rescheduled for tonite. We ended up with a smaller group due to the normal conflicts but in the end the party was probably more enjoyable for the hosts.

I got out the snowblower a record five times from beginning to end of the storm, to keep the driveway and sidewalk clear. High temp today was 4, but that special Christmas warmth seemed to be everywhere. This is a shot of the front of our house right after the party. The ice lanterns were made by Robin, I lit the candles and cleaned off the walk.

Although it was a little disappointing that weeks of work and decorating did not get to be used to their full potential, the house looks great and will be a special place for all of us over the next few days.

Fort Garry Hotel at Christmas

This is where I was earlier today. One of my favourite hotels of all, the beautiful Fort Garry in Winnipeg. They do Christmas quite well here in Manitoba. Father Christmas is on the move.

The Christmas Tree is up

IMG00066-20101114-1615.jpg

This is the earliest we've decorated our tree. Usually we do it the weekend before Thanksgiving but next weekend is so busy we decided to go ahead a week early. The outside lights are turned on, which also seems early, but two of my neighbors beat me to it last weekend. It also helped that we got a foot of snow yesterday, which made all of this seem right on schedule. Some neighbor kids used our yard as the stage to build a couple of snowmen, which was a nice addition as well.

Trimming the tree is always fun, hanging the ornaments the kids made when they were little, and the ones weve picked up at various vacations. We miss not having Rob here, but we had plenty of fun commenting on his elementary Christmas art.

There is something peaceful about a home with a Christmas tree. All the problems of the world seem to melt away when you gaze on the tree and think about the perfect gift of goodness and righteousness that this season represents.

Merry Christmas

Christmas lights

Here's the November pic of the house. Leaves gone from the trees and an unseasonably warm Sunday has us out putting up the Christmas lights, wreaths and the Moravian star.

There seems to be a national shortage of the red mini-lights as it took trips to Walmart, Target, Home Depot and another Target before I finally found them. Another neighbor across the street was putting up lights today, while one around the corner fell off his ladder and an ambulance was called.