25 March 2020

I'm not a statistician, but... Governor Wald's claims seem a little bizarre

Our local CBS station reports this from our governor's press conference. It was earlier today and when he also announced the lockdown order.

"Walz said that if the state did nothing to slow the spread of COVID-19, projections show that upwards of 74,000 people in this state could potentially be killed by the virus."

That's a scary figure, and I'm sure intentionally so. As of this writing, according to Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center, 21,181 people in the whole world have died of the virus. Total. All of Italy, all of China, all of Spain, all of every country in the world.

I guess here in Minnesota we are just particularly vulnerable.... that over three times as many people will die here as in the WHOLE WIDE WORLD. Fortunately for us all we live in a state that can't stand to do nothing, for both problems huge and tiny.

The virus is serious, but so far our death total here is 1. (Minnesota Dept of Health)

Neither the cheerleading of the President, nor the doomsdayism of the Governor is helpful.

A year from now we will commemorate the anniversary of this terrible event. I'm sure someone will drag out that 74,000 figure and crow about how wonderful it is that deaths were so far below the forecasts of today.

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